Reds face must-win contest against Besiktas

Soccer Betting Lines

11/05/2007 - Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Liverpool has its back against the wall and must produce a win on Tuesday at Anfield against Besiktas to keep hope alive of advancing in the Champions League.

The Reds entered Group A as favorites, but proceeded to draw with FC Porto, before dropping its last two games against Marseille and Besiktas.

After reaching the final of last year's competition, Rafael Benitez and his men now sit at the bottom of the table, six points behind leaders Marseille and four adrift of second-place FC Porto.

Benitez and Liverpool may get a boost with the return of striker Fernando Torres, who is battling an adductor strain and was back in training on Monday.

Liverpool has scored just two goals in its first three games and can use all the offensive weapons it can get. The team is without Xabi Alonso (metatarsal) for a month, while defender Daniel Agger is still out as well.

The team has created plenty of chances in its first three games, but its failure to put goals away in the final third has let them down time and again.

With some better finishing, Liverpool could very easily win its final three games and still grab a spot in the next round, but they now have no room for error.

In Group A's other contest on Tuesday, surprise leaders Marseille host Porto with the French club holding a two-point advantage on the Portuguese side.

Chelsea have a three-point lead over the rest of the field in Group B, and they travel to Germany to meet Schalke. The London side downed Schalke 2-0 last time out, and they can all but clinch a spot in the second round with another victory, while second-place Rosenborg visits Valencia. The Spanish club is reeling after firing its coach and going through a tough stretch in La Liga, but they can take a big step forward with a win over the surprising Norwegian outfit.

Olympiakos had the lead in Group C after two rounds of games, but they dropped a 4-2 contest to Real Madrid in their last game, and host the Spanish champions on Tuesday in an effort to reclaim the top spot. The Greek club trails Real by three points, while the bottom two clubs, Werder Bremen and Lazio, square off at the Stadio Olimpico.

Shakhtar Donetsk will be looking for revenge when AC Milan comes to town with both teams sitting level on points at the top of Group D. Milan easily handled the Ukrainian side 4-1 at the San Siro last time out, but Shakhtar will be hoping for at least a point to keep themselves in a good position to advance. Benfica earned its first win of the competition last time out against Celtic, and they will try to make it two straight when they travel to Celtic Park.

Wednesday's action features two Premiership teams, Arsenal and Manchester United, who can both secure spots in the second round with wins.

The Gunners are currently 3-0 in Group H, and visit Slavia Prague needing three points for a spot in the next round, while the other game in the group is between Sevilla and Steaua Bucurest. Sevilla can also all but secure passage if they win and Arsenal beats Slavia.

United can go through in front of its home fans if they down Dynamo Kiev at Old Trafford. Sir Alex Ferguson's team beat the Ukrainian side 4-2 last time out, and should have no problem repeating their victory. Roma can also sit comfortably with a win as they square off against Sporting Lisbon in Portugal.

Group E leaders Barcelona and Rangers will meet up once again after the two teams played to a 0-0 draw at the Ibrox. Neither side looked interested in winning the game, but both are still in a good position to advance. That's because they both hold a four-point lead on third-place Lyon, who can get back in contention with another win against Stuttgart. The French champions beat the German squad 2-0 last time out, and must do so again if they want to advance past the group stage.

The tightest group at the top is easily Group G, with the top three teams separated by only two points. Inter Milan leads the group with six points and has a winnable game at home against CSKA Moscow, while the group's other game is a battle for second place between Fenerbahce and PSV Eindhoven. PSV trails the Turkish side by one point, but they could only manage a 0-0 draw with Fenerbahce on home soil, and now must travel to Sukru Saracoglu to face a very difficult atmosphere.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.